From IMF’s July World Economic Outlook, released today:
A Quasi-Real Time Measure of the Average Effective Tariff Rate
The Yale Budget Lab regularly (’cause… Trump) updates the stated effective tariff rate. But what’s the actual effective tariff rate in effect given all the threats, pauses, etc.? Not sure? Fortunately, Paweł Skrzypczyński is on the case:
Conference Board: Economic Confidence Up (a Little)
The Conference Board today:
Gerard Baker: “If Trump’s Tariffs Are So Bad, Where’s the Recession?”
That question was posed in the WSJ, and poses three possible answers:
What Happens If IEEPA Tariffs Are Rule Illegal?
Oral arguments before the appellate court take place this week. Suppose the tariffs invoked under IEEPA are struck down, then that decision would likely be appealed to the Supreme Court (eventually). From CNBC:
Stay Tuned: World Trade for June
Wegovy ™ for Me, but Not for Thee (cont’d)
The just-announced trade “deal” (what’s the enforcement mechanism?) apparently covers pharmaceuticals. Where do we get most of our pharma (by value)? From Joey Politano, the answer:
TACO, Again! (China Edition)
Not that I’m complaining. Continue reading
US Real Exports Flatlining Despite Rising RoW GDP, Depreciated Dollar
What else did you expect?
Betting on 2.5%
Kalshi today. 2.4% from GDPNow and the Bloomberg consensus.