The March employment figures have almost universally been hailed as evidence of a strong labor market, given how the announced value exceeded expectations, and the fact that previous months values were revised upward (WSJ1, WSJ2, Reuters, Bloomberg; contrarian opinion at Big Picture, Capital Spectator). (Jim Hamilton has already discussed how likely these figures are to be revised, in light of other complementary data.) Without disagreeing, I think it behooves us to consider other ways of looking at the data.
Exchange rate depreciation and expenditure switching in the United States
The IMF’s April 2007 World Economic Outlook has been released — or at least part of it. One chapter, entitled Exchange Rates and the adjustment of External Imbalances [pdf], deals with a subject close to my heart.
Strong March employment growth
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today that U.S. nonfarm payrolls, as measured by their survey of establishments, increased by a seasonally adjusted 180,000 workers in March.
Cantarell fading quickly
A big challenge for Mexico and the rest of us.
New study of the determinants of oil prices
Professor Lutz Kilian of the University of Michigan has an interesting new paper on the historical determinants of crude oil prices.
The Subprime collapse and the housing market: a bubble or “looting”
Jim Hamilton’s recent post “Bubble, bubble, toil, and trouble” elicited a tremendous amount of commentary — and incredulity — amongst the readers.
More speculation about Saudi Arabia
The Oil Drum has been featuring some very interesting speculation as to the meaning of the
ongoing drop in Saudi Arabian oil production.
San Diego County pension fund sues Amaranth hedge fund
Pension Tsunami catches this story from Bloomberg.
Nonresidential investment spending: The message in the March 29 release
GDP growth was revised up in today’s NIPA release. But there are some interesting aspects in the details.
About that downside
As always, first-rate economic analysis from Fed Chair Ben Bernanke today, and first-rate coverage from Mark Thoma and Kash Mansori, among others.