With the CPI release, we have new July observations for 3 series.
The Great Replacement “Theory” * Comes to Economics at Heritage
Heritage Foundation’s EJ Antoni writes on X (August 2):
Over the last year, native-born Americans have LOST 1.2 million jobs while foreign-born employment has increased 1.3 million; we’re just swapping out American workers at this point, not growing the pie for everyone…
PPI Downside Surprise
Core PPI 0.0% m/m vs +0.2% consensus (+2.4% y/y vs. +2.7% consensus). Here’s a picture of instantaneous core measures.
Oxford Economics: Recession at 3 & 6 Months Horizons
If you’re wondering about a recession by the time the election rolls around…
Podcast: On the Macroeconomy, and on Wisconsin
Me, interviewed with Buzz Kemper, on BadgerTalks, recorded on 8/6 (Episode 44).
One Year Ahead CPI Inflation Expectations down in July for Consumers, Firms, Economists
Last one for August (from Survey of Professional Forecasters).
Already in Recession?
Pascal Michaillat (UCSC) and Emmanuel Saez (UC Berkeley) say 40% probability, yes. From the abstract to the paper:
August Survey of Professional Forecasters: GDP
Continued growth:
JD Vance: “The political leadership of this country should have a greater say on the monetary policy of the United States”
My transcription of JD Vance’s statement re: the Fed, on “State of the Union”, interviewed by Dana Bash today. Might’ve gotten a few words wrong, but got the essence I think.
Russia M/M Inflation at 1.1% in July
As reported by the Rosstat, via TradingEconomics: