More talk this week of war with Iran, and the price of oil jumps right up. Maybe the two are related, and maybe not.
External scientific advice at the Department of Energy
Energy department abolishes science advisory board
Who’s grumpy about this week’s good economic news?
People who bought long-term Treasuries at 4.3%, that’s who.
The yield curve and predicting recessions
Jonathan Wright, a brilliant research economist at the Federal Reserve Board, recently completed a very interesting paper titled The Yield Curve and Predicting Recessions. Wright’s research seems to have been influential in Fed Chair Ben Bernanke’s recent assessment that the current very flat yield curve does not signify a coming significant economic slowdown.
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Why is Secretary Snow such a perennial target?
What’s moving long-term yields?
Long-term interest rates continue to creep up.
Trends in Dollar Reserves
Latest data
The Full Employment Budget Surplus
The CBO’s latest estimates
Learning the new Fedspeak
Curious reaction from both markets and pundits to yesterday’s statement from the FOMC accompanying the decision to boost the fed funds rate another 25 basis points.
Chinese revaluation
What would be the important effects?