It’s usually in the Mid-Session Review, which comes out in July. But no table of forecasts is included this year (you can check–I did!). Which begs the question — how did they estimate the revenues going forward if they didn’t have GDP projections?
Scary Picture?
Some macro series. One observation does not make a trend – but still…
West Coast Port Traffic Down
Or at least Long Beach and LA:
Nowcasts of GDP and “Core GDP”
As of today, GDP nowcasts split, but final sales to private domestic purchasers (coined “Core GDP” by Furman) consensus is deceleration.
Signs of a Slowing Russian Economy: CBR Drops Rate 200 bp
Three weeks ago, Bofit remarks “Concerns emerge over Russia’s slowing growth”:
What Fed Funds Rate Does Trump Want?
Compared to Taylor rule, according the to the Atlanta Fed Taylor rule utility.
Guest Contribution: “Global shocks, institutional development, and trade restrictions: What can we learn from crises and recoveries between 1990 and 2022?”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Jamel Saadaoui (Université Paris 8-Vincennes). This post is based on the paper of the same title (Aizenman, Ito, Park, Saadaoui, and Uddin, 2025).
(Fed) Credibility Lost? Bordo-Siklos 5 Year
We see reversion in the Bordo-Siklos measure of inflation credibility back toward pre-Trump 2.0 levels. However, we’ll see if this is recovery is durable in the wake of Trump’s attacks on Fed independence (including a historic non-ceremonial visit by a sitting President).
How Resilient Is the Consumer, Really?
I see this constantly remarked upon, so I wanted to check the data.
The Stock Market and “The Soft Bigotry of Low Expectations”
Trump announces tariffs of “only” 15% on Japanese imported goods, and the market jumps.