10 year Treasury yields are down 40 bps over the week.
Business Cycle Indicators, with Employment, Monthly GDP
Here’s a picture of some key indicators followed by the NBER BCDC, along with monthly GDP:
Employment: Different Measures
NFP comes under, 114K vs. 176K consensus. Private NFP also missed, +97K vs. +148K consensus.
Trump Prediction Market Meltdown: COB 1 August 2024
From PredictIt on the Presidential Election Winner, 54 Dem / 48 Rep:
“Yellen Rebuffs Trump Argument on Dollar Hurting US Manufacturing”
That’s a title of an article by Christopher Condon, in Bloomberg a few days ago. What’s the evidence? Figure 1 shows the typically referenced CPI deflated trade weighted dollar.
Updating the “Flip”
GDP Per Capita
Are you better off than you were 4 years ago?
Flip? Prediction Markets at July’s End
For party of winner, 50-50 as of noon ET today (PredictIt):
Inflation Expectations in July (and June)
Michigan is down in July, while business unit costs are up slightly.
VoxEU: “The Russian sanctions and dollar foreign exchange reserves”
From a VoxEU article today, by Robert N. McCauley with Hiro Ito and Menzie Chinn:
Will the freezing of the Bank of Russia’s foreign exchange reserves undermine the dollar’s predominant role in official foreign exchange reserves? This column examines the aggregate evidence since end-2021 for any reduction in the dollar share of official foreign exchange reserves against a baseline constructed with data from 1999 through 2021. The observed dollar share in March 2024 differs little from the out-of-sample projection based on this baseline. On this showing, official reserve managers have not reduced the role of the dollar since the freeze of the Bank of Russia’s assets.