From IMF WEO:
Higher for Longer, Illustrated
From Rashad Ahmed today:
Best Proposed Amendment *Ever*
Filed today by Rep. Moskowitz:
Different Measures of Consumer Prices
Since 2021M01, the CPI has risen 17.3% (log terms). By comparison, chained CPI and HICP have risen by approximately 16.5%. The PCE deflator has risen only 14.4% by March 2024 – but these are prices of goods and services produced, not of prices faced by consumers.
NIIP and Primary Income: Dark Matter +20 vs. Exorbitant Privilege +40
Here’s a graph that I constructed, in preparing to teach the open economy component of Macro Policy:
US-China GDP Growth since 1981
Reader Bruce Hall observes:
China’s growth rate is projected to be about twice that of the US.
Kim Ruhl: “U.S. China Trade: From the Cold War to the Trade War”
Economics Dept and CROWE presents:
Polls, Sentiment, Prediction Markets
It’s of some interest to see how polls and prediction markets are viewing the presidential race, and how this links with economic sentiment.
IMF View on US GDP Growth
More upbeat than WSJ April survey mean:
“Assessing Methods to Integrate the Physical Risks and Transition Risks and Opportunities of Climate Change into the President’s Macroeconomic Forecast”
CEA and OMB report out today.