Business Cycle Indicators on May Day

Monthly GDP from S&P Global Market Insights is up 0.3% in March (3.9% annualized), final sales up 6.3% (annualized). This follows on the heels of Thursday’s announcement that nominal personal income and nominal personal spending exceeded consensus by 0.1 ppts m/m. Here is a picture of the key series followed by NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee, augmented by monthly GDP (where the top two are real personal income excluding current transfers and nonfarm payroll employment).

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GDP, GDP+, Final Sales

Jim noted recurrent delays in the long heralded recession in his Thursday post. Here are some additional reflections on where economic activity has been, and where it is heading, relying on additional data. GDPNow (which hit the mark for Q1 growth) indicates continued growth through Q2. S&P Global Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) indicates a plateau has been reached. Final sales (i.e., GDP ex. inventories) suggests continued growth.

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Guest Contribution: “Restructuring Debt of African Commodity-Exporters”

Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate. I would like to thank Sohaib Nasim for valuable assistance on this month’s commentary, as well my others this year.

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