Industrial production comes in under consensus (-0.1% vs +0.2%). Here’s a picture of the key indicators followed by the NBER BCDC.
Output Gap Measures
Are we at full employment? Here are some estimates:
“The U.S. economy, interest rates, inflation and the possibility of a coming recession”
That’s the topic for The Morning Show on “The Ideas Network”, 8am CT, at
Super Bowl gambling, New STEM museum, Economic forecast, Vocal cord dysfunction
Inflation: January 2024
CPI comes in above consensus, on both headline and core. Instantaneous inflation (per Eeckhout (2023)) has a slight uptick.
Inflation Expectations Down
Forecast errors from end of last year are essentially zero.
Asian-Americans Once Again Thank Trump
Where Does UkraineRussia Fit As an Independent State, Historically?
A great map, courtesy of the former President of Mongolia:
Survey of Professional Forecasters – February
From Friday’s SPF release for Q1, for GDP:
Donald Trump Proposes Violating Treaty Agreements
From CNN:
Why I Don’t Think It Was Only Demand Shocks that Drove 2022-23 Inflation
From a lecture prepared for “Macroeconomic Policy” (Spring 2024):