Exchange Rate Pass Through into Import Prices, CPI
Justin Ho of Marketplace discussed the implications of the import/export price release Thursday. My view was that pass through into import prices was low in the short run, and even in the long run was not very large, while pass through into the broader price index was unlikely to be large. Not sure I was alone in this view, but here’re my thoughts.
Business Cycle Indicators, Mid-February
Industrial production comes in under consensus (-0.1% vs +0.2%). Here’s a picture of the key indicators followed by the NBER BCDC.
Output Gap Measures
Are we at full employment? Here are some estimates:
“The U.S. economy, interest rates, inflation and the possibility of a coming recession”
That’s the topic for The Morning Show on “The Ideas Network”, 8am CT, at
Super Bowl gambling, New STEM museum, Economic forecast, Vocal cord dysfunction
Inflation: January 2024
CPI comes in above consensus, on both headline and core. Instantaneous inflation (per Eeckhout (2023)) has a slight uptick.
Inflation Expectations Down
Forecast errors from end of last year are essentially zero.
Asian-Americans Once Again Thank Trump
Where Does UkraineRussia Fit As an Independent State, Historically?
A great map, courtesy of the former President of Mongolia:
Survey of Professional Forecasters – February
From Friday’s SPF release for Q1, for GDP: