That’ s leading question in the NYT a little while back (just getting to this now that I’ve finished grading).
“Is the Boom-and-Bust Business Cycle Dead?”
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Hi Ho, Hi Ho, It’s Off to FX War We Go!
I’ve only now gotten around to writing about this Trump policy proposal: “Trump trade advisers plot dollar devaluation” . I was befuddled by how they Trump brain trust was going to effectively force the weakening of the dollar: sterilized intervention, dropping interest rates in the US, or forcing foreign countries to re-peg their currencies at stronger values. They all seem to be problematic.
“You have to look pretty hard to find the “trade war” effect in the data”
That’s a quote from Bruce Hall, referring to the period 2011 onward. For his reference, I present key indicators of the manufacturing sector during the Trump trade war.
Manufacturing Malaise?
Manufacturing employment is up relative to 3 years ago. Why so much dissatisfaction?
Wisconsin Macro Conditions and Economic Sentiment
In Recession? Real Time vs. Final Revised Data
Di Martino Booth points to the McKelvey rule, which uses a 0.3 ppt threshold instead of the Sahm 0.5 ppt threshold. This indicator does seem to signal a recession as shown in the figure below.
Legislative Fiscal Bureau (Aug 2017): “August 2017 Special Session Assembly Bill 1: Foxconn/Fiserv Legislation”
Here’s the entire Legislative Fiscal Bureau document on Foxconn (since links to original site do not work in my previous post “Wisconsin FoxConned by Walker et al.”:
Russia Slows, Struggles to Supply the War Effort
From BOFIT:
Brad Setser: “Power and Financial Interdependence”
Wisconsin FoxConned by Walker et al.
On the day in which President Biden announced the repurposing of the site that was to be Foxconn’s, I reprint this 2017 assessment.