From Atlanta Fed today, 2.9% SAAR in Q3:
Category Archives: economic growth
Four Measures of the Output Gap and Measuring Trends
Talking about a rethink of the output gap, and the concept of the trend-cycle decomposition in macro policy tomorrow. Here’s a picture of the output gap from CBO, from two statistical filters (Hodrick-Prescott and Fleischman-Roberts/Fed Board), and the Delong and Summers (BPEA 1988) model.
March FT-Booth Macroeconomists Survey: GDP, Recession, r*
The FT-Booth Macroeconomist Survey was released today. GDP is slated to grow 2.1% in 2024, q4/q4.
Guest Contribution: “The Price of Property Rights: Institutions, Finance, and Economic Growth”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Ron Alquist (Senior Economist and Policy Advisor, Financial Stability Oversight Council), Benjamin R. Chabot (Knowledge Leader, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago), and Ram Yamarthy (Senior Economist, Office of Financial Research, U.S. Treasury). The views expressed in this blog post are the authors’ own and do not necessarily represent those of the Financial Stability Oversight Council, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, the Federal Reserve System, the Office of Financial Research, or the U.S. Department of Treasury.
“Prosperity: Crises, Debt & the Future of American Economic Policy”
That’s the name of the economic session at the La Follette Forum on American Power, Prosperity and Democracy. A video of this panel is available through Youtube. Here are some recounting and thoughts on the panel discussion.
The Recovery in Wisconsin Compared
It’s lagging that of the BEA Great Lakes Region, and of neighbor Minnesota.
FT-IGM Macro Survey, on GDP, Inflation, Monetary Policy
From FT Friday, “Economists predict US interest rate rise in 2022” (Colby Smith/Christine Zhang), discussion of results of the second FT-Chicago Booth IGM survey of macroeconomists:
Delta Impact
Messages from the 21Q2 GDP Advance Release: No Economy Is an Island
With apologies to John Donne.
Jim provided some key points in his Thursday post regarding the 21Q2 advance figures. Here are my additional takeaways: (1) the Administration’s forecast locked down in February looks prescient; (2) Final sales were higher than GDP, (3) exports have not buttressed growth, partly because of slow rest-of-world growth, (4) price growth is a rising share of nominal GDP growth.
Output Gaps and Interest Rates – Survey of Professional Forecasters vs. Troika
The White House economic assumptions (based on February data) released today in the FY ’22 budget imply full employment output at year’s end, contrasting with 1.4% using Survey of Professional Forecasters (from May)