I’m not going to “pull an Ed Lazear” and declare “no”. But the current versions of indicators are not very supportive of a “yes” answer.
Category Archives: recession
Spreads and Recession Watch
Since we’re talking recession [0], it’s of interest to see what market indicators are saying, for the US and for the world. First, the term spread for the US:
The Next Global Recession: Made in China?
The portents from China are not good. There are ominously titled news articles aplenty; the WSJ asked in August if a global recession is brewing in China. Wonkblog asks How China could trigger a global crisis:
When China sneezes, the rest of the world might not catch a cold, but it does feel bad for a couple of days. The question, though, is whether China is sicker than it seems and how contagious that would be for the global economy.
Politico on the 2016 Economic Outlook
Provocatively titled “Could the Economy Tank in 2016?”:
Factors in long-term unemployment
The BLS reported on Friday that the U.S. unemployment rate was down to 5% in October and November, its lowest level since 2008.
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Reflections on Ten Years: Deficits, the Financial Crisis, Textbook Economics and Data Paranoia
Last Saturday marked ten years I’ve had the honor of contributing to Econbrowser, at the generous invitation of Jim Hamilton (here are his thoughts on ten years of Econbrowser). What follows are some thoughts on what I’ve learned during that time.
The bailouts of 2007-2009
The latest issue of the Journal of Economic Perspectives had a very interesting symposium on the costs and benefits of the various bailouts implemented during the Great Recession.
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Ed Lazear on the Current Outlook
From CNBC yesterday:
A government jobs report, like the one for March, that’s so out of whack compared to expectations usually sparks admonishments from market watchers not to make too much out of any single monthly data set.
But leading labor economist Ed Lazear said Monday that this time is different. “The reason I pay a little bit more attention to this one, it’s not just one month, it’s a series of indicators—almost all of which—are pointing in the same direction.”
Guest Contribution: Long-Term Effects of the Great Recession
Today, we’re fortunate to have David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan, Professor of Economics and Clinical Assistant Professor of Economics, respectively, at the University of Houston, as Guest Contributors.
More on U.S. Employment, Post-Trough
Reader rtd states “it is virtually guaranteed that after a nation’s business cycle trough, that same nation’s employment growth will display an upward trend.” I thought this an interesting enough assertion that it merited additional investigation.