That’s a prediction from Peter Navarro, on Chairman Powell’s fate in a new Trump Administration.
More, on the Dollar
At the same time as the Fed-NY Fed Dollar conference, the Atlanta Fed had a conference on financial markets.
Private and Total Nonfarm Payroll Employment: CES, QCEW, BED Early Benchmark, ADP
How certain are we about private NFP growth? Some worries from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) through December.
How Well Is Wisconsin Doing Macroeconomically?
At the beginning of April. Wisconsinites’ views on the state’s economy were fairly downbeat, despite some positive indicators [0]. On possible explanation is the perception of the economy’s state differs from respondent’s own conditions. Another possibility is that we have mismeasured the economy’s conditions.
Gotland Two Years Ago, Two Hundred Years Ago, and Now
Day 2 Third Conference on the International Roles of the U.S. Dollar
The program continued on from yesterday (full agenda here). Sessions included papers on theoretical modeling of CIP deviations, the effect of swap line announcements on asset prices gleaned from high frequency data and new data on over the counter fx transactions. Once again a tremendous learning experience for me.
Day 1 Third Conference on the International Roles of the U.S. Dollar
It was a real pleasure to get to attend the conference (agenda here). Incredibly informative and stimulating — sometimes I think I know a lot about a subject, but conferences like this disabuse me of that notion.
I add links to ungated versions of the papers presented today, below:
Fed Board: “Why is the U.S. GDP recovering faster than other advanced economies?”
An extensive Board article released on Friday:
Eric Hovde Predicts
recession, stock market decline, and housing market decline. From December 19th (Newport Beach Independent):
- Economic Slowdown: The U.S. is likely to enter a recession, with consumers expected to deplete their savings, leading to only one potentially positive GDP quarter in 2024.
One Year Ahead Inflation Expectations
April and May inflation was overpredicted by year-ahead consumer-based surveys.