It’s of some interest to see how polls and prediction markets are viewing the presidential race, and how this links with economic sentiment.
IMF View on US GDP Growth
More upbeat than WSJ April survey mean:
“Assessing Methods to Integrate the Physical Risks and Transition Risks and Opportunities of Climate Change into the President’s Macroeconomic Forecast”
CEA and OMB report out today.
GDP Forecasts Brighten Yet Further
The WSJ April survey is out (responses April 5-9):
Guest Contribution: “On the time-varying impact of China’s bilateral political relations on its trading partners: “doux commerce” or “trade follows the flag”?”
Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution by Jamel Saadaoui (University of Strasbourg).
GDP Nowcasts
GDPNow and NY Fed close.
Wisconsin Economic Forecast Luncheon
Video via WisconsinEye, event on April 10th.
Key Naval Deployments as of 9 April 2024
From FleetTracker:
Trends in German Trade on the Eve of World War I
One shouldn’t just say increasing (or decreasing) trade between potential adversaries predicts something.
Food Inflation Moderates
But convergence in the East North Central portion of the Midwest is slower. Follow up to this post.