I saw this screenshot of a post from Dan Scavino, former Deputy Chief of Staff for Communications in the Trump White House, and former caddie for a party at the Trump National Golf Club Westchester (at that time, Briar Hall Country Club), and thought “those numbers don’t look right”.
Urals vs. Brent, pre- and post-Cap
The $60 price cap on Russian crude oil was effective 5 December 2022. Here’s a figure of Urals vs. Brent over the past 5 years.
The Debt-Service Ratio and Estimated Recession Probability
Or, why I still think a recession is possible at 2024H1.
Guest Contribution: “Naomi Klein’s Brand”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.
FT-Booth September Survey
The recession’s start is further delayed as forecasted growth continues. FT article and survey results: q4/q4 growth at 2% [1.3%, 2.5% 90%ile range].
Business Cycle Indicators as of Mid-September
Industrial production suprised on the upside on Friday, 0.4% vs. 0.1% Bloomberg consensus. Here’s the picture of key indicators followed by the NBER BCDC, plus monthly GDP.
Conference: “Uncertainty, Economic Activity, and Forecasting in a Changing Environment”
Sept 21-22, at the University of Padua, organized by International Institute of Forecasters, University of Padua, American University, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, and IMF.
Nowcasts and Forecasts – Mid-September
GDPNow Q3 revised slightly down (4.9% SAAR), GS about the same (3.2%).
Inflation in August
Month-on-month CPI headline (core) at (0.1 ppt above) Bloomberg consensus. Month-on-month PPI 0.3 ppts above consensus of 0.4 ppts. Y/Y core CPI continues to decline, while instantaneous core inflation is flat.
EIA Short Term Energy Outlook Oil Price Forecast
Peak price 2023Q4 at $87.7/bbl (WTI), $92.7/bbl (Brent). WTI forecast below: