What is your answer to the question: How Close to Full Capital Mobility Are We?
No GDP Downturn Forecasted: SPF
In contrast to the July WSJ survey, the just-released Survey of Professional Forecasters mean forecast shows no negative GDP growth.
Uncertainty in China
If you were wondering why FDI inflows had sharply decreased, why consumers were wary of spending, part of the reason might be elevated economic and economic policy uncertainty.
Chinese Growth in Question (Again) [Updated]
Update to this post. Official Chinese statistics indicate 6.3% y/y growth in Q2. Maybe it’s less?
Guest Contribution: Model update and disagreement among recession models
Today we are fortunate to be able to present a guest contribution written by Rashad Ahmed (Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, US Treasury). The views presented are solely those of the author, and do not necessarily represent the views of the US Treasury, or any other organizations the author is affiliated with.
Better to Light One Candle than Curse the Darkness*: Real Wage Edition
We live in an age where tons of data are easily available. It is highly unlikely that the US government is suppressing data, e.g., median hourly wage data, in an effort to provide an overly optimistic picture of the US economy. That’s an unlikely conspiracy.
Inflation in July: Central Tendency Down
Headline and core y/y CPI inflation undershoots slightly Bloomberg consensus (by 0.1%) (and below Cleveland Fed nowcast for headline of 0.4% m/m, see yesterday’s post). Overall, trend is down even if headline y/y is ticks up slightly.
Chinese Inflation in July
Year-on-year CPI inflation goes negative (-0.3% vs. -0.4% consensus), and month-on-month is positive.
CPI Inflation at Annual Rates, using July Nowcast
From Cleveland Fed; and compared to Bloomberg consensus.
Chinese Growth in Question (Again)
Official Chinese statistics indicate 6.3% y/y growth in Q2. Maybe it’s less?