From WFAA, “Why a Texas nuclear power plant stopped producing electricity Friday”:
Of Technocrats and Ideologues in Economic Data/Analysis Dissemination
I’ve gotten jaded by getting regular emails alerting me to the fact a new Wisconsin Economic Outlook Forecast or Monthly Economic Update (the latest just out, here). In addition, DoR has substantially expanded its interactive data visualizations here. But after a little thought, I really have to say it’s been a sea change in openness since Governor Walker exited.
Two Quarters of Negative GDP Growth Do Not (Necessarily) a Recession Make, Part MMXXVI
From CEPR-EABCN’s Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee (June 30 meeting), “Not Every Downturn Is a Recession”
Wisconsin GDP through ’23Q1
State level GDP figures for Wisconsin was released last week. Here’s a picture of that series, compared to the Evers Administration’s forecast, and a naive forecast based on US GDP and lagged WI GDP.
“Wind, solar help Texas meet record power demand during heat wave”
From Reuters:
June 30 (Reuters) – The Texas power grid comfortably met record demand during this week’s heat wave with abundant power supply from wind and solar plants, data from the grid operator showed.
Business Cycle Indicators at June’s End
With today’s spending and income release, we have this picture of key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee (consumption, income, sales), along with monthly GDP. Atlanta Fed has also released a new nowcast of GDP.
Real Defense Consumption and Investment, 1960-2023Q1
“The Predictive Power of the Yield Curve, Factors and Foreign Interest Rates for Economic Activity across Countries”
Presentation of paper by coauthor Laurent Ferrara and myself, today at International Symposium on Forecasting 2023…
Does the Fed Care about What’s Going On in the Rest of the World?
Ferrara and De Roux actually pose the question more tactfully, in their paper (Capturing international influences in U.S. monetary policy through a NLP approach) presented at the ISF meetings here in Charlottesville. They look to see if in the FOMC minutes, international economic issues are mentioned in a way that, when converted to an index, shows up as statistically significant in a Taylor equation, and provide the answer “yes”.
Inflation across Some Countries
The debate over causes of the inflation surprise in the US is dominated by focus on the fiscal policy and late tightening, among other things. I think it’s of interest to note (again!) that the spike in inflation was not US-specific. Here are two graphs I presented in today’s lecture in the ISF.