Assume no recession in US through February 2023. What do term and credit spreads, financial conditions index, debt-service ratios predict at the 12 month horizon?
Two Data Sets and Some Papers
For use in ISF 2023 course on “Modeling & Forecasting the International Dimensions”.
The Term Spread, 1970-2023M06
For reference:
Fix the National Debt (Without a Magic Wand)
A simulation from the Center for a Responsible Federal Budget.
Guest Contribution: “Seeking Sustainability in U.S. Debt”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.
Term Spreads for Country Groupings
US, Rest-of-Advanced, Emerging Markets, follow up on individual countries’ term spreads in yesterday’s post.
Further Thoughts on the Labor Market Collapse of 2022H1 (aka the Kopits Thesis)
Mr. Steven Kopits asserted that the Philadelphia Fed’s early preliminary benchmark supported a recession in 2022H1, to wit:
Business Cycle Indicators, Mid-June
With industrial production coming in, we have the following picture of some key business cycle indicators followed by the NBER BCDC. Also included is GDPNow as of today.
Term Spread Inversion and Non-Inversions
The 10yr-3mo term spread is remarkably synchronized for some large advanced economies.
US-Euro Area Price Level and Inflation Differentials: I(0), I(1), Segmented Trends?
Do you calculate inflation differentials using … inflation or price levels? Follow up on this debate from a bit over a year ago.