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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

Trade War w/Canada, Mexico

From McKibben/Noland (PIIE):

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This entry was posted on March 3, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

The Inversion Continues

While VIX is elevated:

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This entry was posted on March 3, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Nowcasted Consumption Falls to Stall Speed

A week ago, Atlanta Fed’s nowcast of consumption was 2.2% q/q annualized; now it’s zero.

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This entry was posted on March 3, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Policy Uncertainty

High frequency through 3/2:

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This entry was posted on March 3, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Have Nowcasts and Forecasts Ever Dropped so Quickly When Not about to Go into a Recession?

Asking for a friend. From Atlanta Fed today:

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This entry was posted on March 3, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Reinversion Continues

End of week  spreads:

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This entry was posted on February 28, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Recession Outlook Darkening

From betting markets, economists:

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This entry was posted on February 28, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Instantaneous Inflation Rising

Year-on-Year looks better.

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This entry was posted on February 28, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Off a Cliff

NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee key indicators. Consumption (preliminary) falls markedly.

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This entry was posted on February 28, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Egg Prices Keep on Rising

From Trading Economics today:

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This entry was posted on February 27, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Recent Posts

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  • Destroying Dollar Safe Haven Status at Breakneck Speed
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  • Guest Contribution: “Policy Rule Evaluation for the Fed’s Strategy Review”

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Current Indicators

Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 6.8 (describes  2024:Q4)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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