Coincident index growth slows from 4.1% m/m AR to 1.7% in February.
The Recession Start Predicted (Post-Pause)
While the odds on a recession in 2025 have dropped from 69% to 54% in the wake of Trump’s 90 day pause, the predicted start of the recession has not changed much.
A Real-Time US Effective Tariff Rate Measure
From Paweł Skrzypczyński, “Average effective tariff rate in the U.S.”:
*Micro* becomes *Macro* and Macro-Financial Interactions
Gianluca Benigno points out that large and pervasive tariffs will have macro implications that spur deleveraging and a decline in R** in a pernicious (my word) feedback loop.
Stay Tuned for Dollar Share of World FX Reserves
Miran et al. want to end exorbitant privilege and the dollar’s role as a safe asset.
The Yield Curve: Steepening *and* Inverting
The time series, for 3m10s, 2s10s, as well as 1yr-FFR spread Miller (2019) identifies as max AUROC recession predictor at 1 month horizon.
Policy Uncertainty and VIX Down (from Pretty High Levels…)
Data available as of 11am CT today:
Guest Contribution: “Miran, we’re not in Triffin land anymore”
Today, we’re fortunate to have a guest contribution from Michael Bordo (Rutgers) and Robert N McCauley (BU & Oxford). A version of this post was published on VoxEU.
GS: From 25% Probability to Recession Call?
From Goldman Sachs, Sunday evening:
We are lowering our 2025 Q4/Q4 GDP growth forecast to 0.5% and raising our 12-month recession probability from 35% to 45% following a sharp tightening in financial conditions, foreign consumer boycotts, and a continued spike in policy uncertainty that is likely to depress capital spending by more than we had previously assumed. …
Random Observations
Inversion continues, with 10yr-3mo at same level as on 12/`6. VIX at 45. Kalshi odds on a recession at 68%, highest since trading started in August. EPU at 1203.