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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

Stephen Moore Critiques the CBO

Mr. Moore continues his reign of (economic) errors, now tackling the CBO’s (and JCT’s) record on predictions, in “Save us from the CBO”

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This entry was posted on May 29, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

What Does a Rising Long Term US Government Yield Mean?

I was thinking about this, as people were remarking on how the 30 year bond was rising.

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This entry was posted on May 29, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Economic Activity: GDP, GDO, GDP+, Final Sales

As of 2nd release for 2025Q1.

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This entry was posted on May 29, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Weekly Indicators of GDP Growth

The Lewis-Mertens-Stock/NY Fed measure for data through 5/24 is down to 1.88%, down from 2.79% on the week of Trump’s inauguration, down from peak of 3.07%, recording data before “Liberation Day”.

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This entry was posted on May 29, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Furniture Prices Up, Up and Away in April

Can’t wait to see May data.

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This entry was posted on May 28, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Some Stabilization in Economic Confidence

While (UMich) economic sentiment (preliminary) falls.

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This entry was posted on May 28, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Imports from China, Foretold

More accurately, nowcasted using inbound container traffic. Two thirds of Chinese imports (by value) comes by sea freight. And sea freight from China doesn’t seem to be rebounding; from Torsten Slok:

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This entry was posted on May 27, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Photos from a Conference

I was at a conference — actually two — in Singapore: the Asian Bureau for Finance and Economic Research annual conference, and the Asian Monetary Policy Forum. In the first, I attended a talk by Steven Davis (Hoover), on “Measuring Policy Uncertainty, Assessing its Consequences”. One slide pretty much summed up my feelings about these times…

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This entry was posted on May 24, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

50% Tariffs on the EU? Or, Wegovy for me, but not for thee?

Macro impact doesn’t seem large according to Yale Budget Lab, but I can hardly wait to see how much a 50% increase in Ozempic and Wegovy prices will go over with the public.

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This entry was posted on May 24, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Guest Contribution: “Foreign aid looks good, now that it’s gone”

Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version, was published by Project Syndicate. 


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This entry was posted on May 24, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Current Indicators

Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 11.7 (describes  2025:Q1)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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