Monthly GDP for November is out. Q4 tracking is for q/q growth 2.1%-3.9% (SAAR).
Lumber Prices and Lumber Futures
Lumber prices did drop like a rock in Fall 2021 (which JohnH seems to deny); then back up. Then back down.
One Year Ahead Inflation Expectations, January 2023
Down slightly in November.
A Holistic but Quantitative Look at Economic Indicators (with Attention to 2022H1)
A reader observes:
How Many Ways Can One Be Wrong on Employment: Steven Kopits Edition
In response to my summary for 2022 and argument that it was unlikely that 2022H1 would be called a recession, Mr. Steven Kopits writes:
So, for H1:
3. Civilian employment was flat to down
Well, it pays to look at actual data before pontificating.
Year in Review, 2022: Vast Data Conspiracy by BEA, “Drill, baby, drill!”, and the Ills of Diversity
Last year’s recap was entitled “Year in Review, 2021: Cleaning Up What Trump Wrought”. This year, with rational policymaking returning, it’s time to erase stupidity.
Weekly Macro Indicators, through 12/24
Weekly indicators from Lewis-Mertens-Stock (NY Fed) Weekly Economic Indicators, and Baumeister, Leiva-Leon and Sims WECI and Woloszko (OECD) Weekly Tracker through 12/24, released today.
Unemployment Insurance Claims, Layoffs, Recession
Initial claims hit expectations, while continuing claims surprise on upside (1710K vs 1686K consensus).
“Foreign direct investment under uncertainty” up to 2019
A new paper in the Review of International Economics, coauthored with Caroline Jardet and Cristina Jude (both Banque de France). From the conclusion:
Russian GDP, Revised: A Bigger Hit in Q2
From BOFIT, revisions back several years, showing a sharper drop in Q2 (5.2% q/q vs original 1.9%).