With provocative incursions of Chinese aircraft across the Taiwan Strait median line around Christmas Day (perhaps as a message responding to the US defense bill), it’s useful to review China’s military posture. Here’s the disposition of Chinese forces in the Eastern and Southern Theaters, as noted by the DoD’s 2022 assessment.
Goods Trade Balance Improves in November
Advance indicators for the goods trade balance came in today, at -$83.35 bn above consensus of -$96.90 bn.
Chinese GDP Growth over the Xi Jinping Era
Over this period, growth has generally surprised on the downside.
Maximum AUROC Spreads as of 12/25/2022: Recession Ahead, and If So, When?
In 2019, Fed economist David Miller undertook a comprehensive assessment of term spread predictive power for recessions (There is No Single Best Predictor of Recessions). For the 1984-2018 period, he found the following:
The Wisconsin Outlook: The State Follows the Nation
From the November Wisconsin Economic Outlook (released December 13):
The Coming Macro Shock of 2023: China
As Paul Krugman notes,
“[Chinese President] Xi has abruptly ended his signature “zero Covid” policy, with all indications pointing to a huge surge in hospitalizations and deaths that will stress health care to the breaking point; the Chinese economy seems set to face major problems over the next two or three years”
Guest Contribution: “The Global Economy as of End-2022”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.
Month-on-Month PCE Deflator Inflation: Has the Regime Switched?
Core PCE inflation was at consensus, 0.2% m/m. Are we in a new inflation regime?
Christmas Eve Eve Business Cycle Conditions
Consumption flat, at expectations. We now have the following picture of key indicators followed by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee.
GDP 3rd Release, GDO, GDP+, GDPNow etc.
Here’s the picture: revisions up in Q3 GDP, and GDP+. Note that GDP+ indicates no downturn in 2022H1.