In this case, one person. Steven Kopits writes:
4. The US is immune to an oil shock on paper as we are ostensibly energy independent in oil. We’ve seen this play out before. US oil consumption declined from June 2011 to December 2012 — 18 months — without the US falling into recession, something which is historically unprecedented in modern times. By contrast, Europe fell into a steep recession during this period — Q4 2011 through Q1 2013.
Worries about recession are rising:
Following up on Jim’s post, some additional comments on the Q1 GDP growth surprise of -1.4% SAAR; GDPNow was 0.4%, while IHS-Markit was -0.6% (and was way below Bloomberg consensus of 1.1%). What to take from this?
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Nelson Mark, Alfred C. DeCrane Jr. Professor of Economics (U. Notre Dame).
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP fell at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter. What does this portend?
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Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.
or “Do you really know what Uncovered Interest Parity is, and whether it holds?” Published as of today in IMF Economic Review, with coauthored with Laurent Ferrara (SKEMA Business School), Matthieu Bussière (Banque de France), and Jonas Heipertz (Columbia Business School):
Two ways of calculating how prices have moved pre-pandemic and during pandemic, incorporating the ideas of stochastic vs. deterministic trends (e.g., this post, Stock and Watson, JEP, 1988).
Or why Jason Furman and I get different answers.
The WorldofGovernmentBonds website provides 2s10s, 2s5s and 1s2s spreads for a whole bunch of countries (missing unfortunately my favorite the 3m10s). Here’s the yield curve for China as of today: