Here are some some observations to complement Jim’s post on the GDP release .
Is this a recession?
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP fell at a 0.9% annual rate in the first quarter. That makes two quarters in a row of falling real GDP, which is one rule of thumb for declaring the economy to be in a recession. The current economic weakness could certainly develop into a recession. But the evidence isn’t convincing that a recession is already under way.
Continue reading
Business Cycle Indicators as of July 27th
Here are some key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee. I’ve added civilian employment to the set of indicators. Below are the trends over the recession and recovery to date, with some guesses for June consumption, May & June sales (since numbers are released on 7/29) and July employment (released on 8/5).
What Pushed Nowcasts Up?
Following up on the previous nowcast post, there are two items of relevance: (1) trade balance (for May); (2) manufacturing orders. Here’s trade balance (release):
Nowcasts and Forecasts of 2022Q2 GDP Growth
These pertain to advance release numbers coming out tomorrow, recalling that they will be revised two times before end-September, as new data comes in. A slight change in views since 5 days ago.
The Fiscal and FX Crises of the Russian State (in War)
From Business Retreats and Sanctions Are Crippling the Russian Economy (July 2022):
The Two Quarter GDP Decline of 1947
Using latest vintages of data:
Erasing the 2001 Recession
Here are data around 2001, for GDP, employment, industrial production, manufacturing and trade industry sales, personal income. Note: no consecutive quarters of negative growth, as in the Chris Cillizza rule.
Chris Cillizza, Ill-informed Non-Economist, on the Definition of a Recession
A reader refers me to a non-economist for *the* definition of a recession, in this YouTube video of a CNN segment (highlighting once again why I don’t typically watch YouTube videos), Regarding the recent CEA article on the definition of a recession, CNN commentator Chris Cillizza states:
The China Outlook from the WEO
July WEO update:
In China, further lockdowns and the deepening real estate crisis have led growth to be revised down by 1.1 percentage points, with major global spillovers.