Article here. How’s Wisconsin doing, jobwise — particularly in terms of the manufacturing employment that Senator Johnson declined to try to bring to Wisconsin?
Business Cycle Indicators at October’s Start
With September IHS-Markit (Macroeconomic Advisers) monthly GDP, we have the following picture of some key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee.
The Recent Pound Plunge in Context: 50 Years of the Real Rate
The drop in the pound over the last week was dramatic. But even with the recovery in the currency’s value to pre-mini-budget levels, the pound has been on a downward trend for the past six years, in inflation adjusted terms.
Lyman Sit-Rep
From ISW (8:30pm ET):
GDPNow Q3 at 2.4% SAAR
Atlanta Fed upped its nowcast for Q3 from 0.3%, on the basis of advanced international data, and annual benchmark GDP numbers:
Business Cycle Indicators at the September’s End
With August nominal consumption coming in above consensus (m/m +0.4% vs. +0.2% Bloomberg), and consumption and personal income continuing to rise, we have the following picture of some key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee.
Ukrainian Territorial Gains in September
From JohnH on 9/2/2022, in response to anonymous’s query: “how’s the crossing of the dneipr and reconquesta of kherson going?”
Natixis: Impact on Chinese GDP Growth via Consumption Reduction
Garcia-Herrero and Xu, “China’s Covid Restrictions May Slash More than Two Percentage Points of Growth in 2022,” (Natixis, Sep 27, 2022):
[Assuming] Covid-related mobility restrictions in 03 to remain similar for 04, the overall reduction in China’s GDP growth in 2022 could be 2.3 percentage points.
Guest Contribution: “Has the Fed Pivoted Too Far?”
Today, we present a guest post written by David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan, Professor and Instructional Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Houston.
Weekly Economic Activity through 9/24
As measured by NY Fed WEI, OECD Weekly Tracker, and Baumeister, Leiva-Leon and Sims WECI.