First, look at nonfarm payroll employment and industrial production, as compared to GDP (and GDO):
Nowcasts, July 8th
GS vs Atlanta and IHS-Markit:
So You Think We’re in a Recession as of Mid-June (Part II)?
From Jim Reid at Deutsche Bank today, the observation “…through history a recession usually has a negative print in the first month of it being declared, which then carries on for the vast majority of the subsequent year. This clearly hasn’t happened yet.”
So You Think We Might Be In a Recession as of Mid-June?
With today’s employment situation release, we have the real-time Sahm rule indicator through June:
The Relative Price of Gasoline, thru 7/4/2022
Using core CPI, Cleveland Fed nowcasts for June, July, as of 7/7.
Inflation Expectations at the 5 Year Horizon
Treasury-TIPS 5 year breakeven down to 2.53%, but expected 5 year inflation after adjusting for premia at 2.31% as of 6/30.
So You Think We Might Be In a Recession Today (Part V)?
Gasoline Prices Today and (Maybe) Tomorrow
Assuming futures contract prices for gasoline are useful predictors for future gasoline prices:
Did Oil Prices Start Rising when Biden Started His War on Fossil Fuels
A reader writes:
I estimate (don’t kinda think) that a large portion of today’s inflation is due to environmental policies, in particular the war on fossil fuels.
Some Correlations on Mass Shootings, Updated
Estimating through beginning of July, regressions of mass shooting casualties, and mass shooting events: