Treasury’s discussion today of current outlook mentions GDPPlus, which I had not recalled. Here is GDPPlus in addition to GDP, GDI, and GDO.
Does a Downturn in Household Survey Employment Better Presage a Recession than One in the Establishment Survey?
I sometimes see this assertion. It clearly has relevance given the pattern we have as of June 2022 data. The red arrows indicate local maxima.
Nowcast Errors – Atlanta vs. St. Louis
Reader Steven Kopits seems to think the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow is the only nowcast of relevance. There are actually quite a few, from the tracking GDPs from consulting firms (e.g., IHS Markit formerly Macroeconomic Advisers) to Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, etc. However, for illustrative purposes, here is an easy to do comparison (since the data are at FRED) for nowcasts just before the advance release.
Will Commodity Prices Continue to Sustain Inflation?
Commodity price indexes through June have turned down, excepting energy. Front month futures prices suggests a further abatement of upward commodity price pressure, including in energy.
World Trade, through Trump’s Trade War, Covid/Recession, Russian Aggression
From the Netherlands Bureau of Economic Policy Analysis (CPB), world trade volume through April 2022:
GDP Nowcasts
GDPNow at -1.6%, St. Louis Fed News index at +4%, IHS-Markit at -2.0%, and Goldman Sachs at 0.5%. Bloomberg consensus at +0.4% (all q/q SAAR).
If You Think the Russian Government Is Doing Just Fine Because of Oil/Gas Revenues…
Here’s some data, from BOFIT, “Russian federal budget revenues continue to deteriorate,” published today:”
If We End Up Talking about the Global Recession of 2023, What/Who Will We Blame?
As forecasts are marked down (IMF releases new forecasts on Tuesday), here in two pictures is my answer:
CFR Growth Tracker
A great new tool for data visualization: y/y growth rates as of 2022Q1:
Tracking the Russian Economy: Are Sanctions Working? [Updated]
[Updated 7/22 using 7/22 BOFIT Weekly Monitor information] It depends on what you mean by “working”, even if Russian GDP (as reported) hasn’t collapsed yet in the reported statistics yet, the worst is likely yet to come. And some effects won’t be easily measurable.