With today’s employment situation release, we have the real-time Sahm rule indicator through June:
The Relative Price of Gasoline, thru 7/4/2022
Using core CPI, Cleveland Fed nowcasts for June, July, as of 7/7.
Inflation Expectations at the 5 Year Horizon
Treasury-TIPS 5 year breakeven down to 2.53%, but expected 5 year inflation after adjusting for premia at 2.31% as of 6/30.
So You Think We Might Be In a Recession Today (Part V)?
Gasoline Prices Today and (Maybe) Tomorrow
Assuming futures contract prices for gasoline are useful predictors for future gasoline prices:
Did Oil Prices Start Rising when Biden Started His War on Fossil Fuels
A reader writes:
I estimate (don’t kinda think) that a large portion of today’s inflation is due to environmental policies, in particular the war on fossil fuels.
Some Correlations on Mass Shootings, Updated
Estimating through beginning of July, regressions of mass shooting casualties, and mass shooting events:
Has US m/m Inflation Accelerated Significantly Faster than Euro Area Inflation?
No, since 2020M03. No for headline, yes for core (at 8% level), since 2021M03.
Recession Talk: US and Euro Area
From Goldman Sachs (Milo, Struyven, Revisiting Recession Facts”) today:
We see the risk that the economy enters a recession in the next year at 30% in the US, 40% in the Euro area, and 45% in the UK. … Our subjective recession probabilities are significantly higher than the average 15% annual unconditional probability of advanced economies to enter a recession since the 1960s.
Of Revisions and Seasonality in the Pandemic Era
It’s important to recall, especially as some nowcasts suggest a negative reading for Q2 growth, that GDP numbers are revised. The first release is called an “advance” release because a substantial share of the inputs are estimated. Below are the various vintages of GDP, starting after the trough so as to better highlight recent revisions.