Looking back to one of the last major ground conflicts. In August 1990, Saddam Hussein’s forces invaded Kuwait. Here’re some risk and uncertainty indicators — some developed afterwards — for that period.
Risk and Uncertainty before the Open
VIX jumped on Friday; the Economic Policy Uncertainty index rose on Saturday.
Nowcasting, Big Data, MIDAS, Lasso, etc.
I get the impression that people mix up things that are logically distinct, even if they might overlap. For instance, one reader says criticizes the failure to use big data at the Fed [1] [2] (see this post for a rejoinder) and in a closely adjoining comment, contrasts the GDPNow series run by the Atlanta Fed and the absence of a global counterpart at the Board. Let’s define some terms, so people who are inclined toward confusion become less confused.
“Big Data” at the Fed
A reader bewails the failure of the Fed to use “new” tools like “big data”. And yet, 10 seconds to type into the Fed’s search engine yields dozens of pages of results. Why is it that some people fail to understand the limitations of their own knowledge, and simultaneously refuse to use “search engines”. Anyway, here’s excerpts from the first two pages of results:
Interest Rate Forecasts – Survey of Professional Forecasters February Survey
Even before the Thursday’s CPI release, forecasters had upped their short term rate forecasts, along with long term.
GDP Forecasts – Survey of Professional Forecasters February Survey
A hiccup in growth for Q1, then resumed growth (SPF) eventually exceeding potential GDP (at least as estimated by CBO last June).
Cliff’s Notes for Nonacademics to Assess Academic Publications
I see so much nonsense written by people who purport to understand who has a “good” publication record and who does not (no names named, you know who you are). Here are a couple of hints.
Uncertainty and Risk Measures
If Russia were to invade the Ukraine, all bets are off on macro and financial forecasts. Given the recent briefing, here’s what some measures of uncertainty and risk look like:
Market Expectations and the CPI Release
Nominal and real yields rise, as do inflation breakevens, while yield curve flattens.
Alternative Inflation Measures for January 2022
As promised, month on month for CP chained, sticky price (posted 50 min ago), trimmed and PCE deflator.