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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

Guest Contribution: “Inflation, Fed policy and emerging markets”

Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution by Steven Kamin (AEI), formerly Director of the Division of International Finance at the Federal Reserve Board. The views presented represent those of the authors, and not necessarily those of the institutions the authors are affiliated with.


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This entry was posted on January 30, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Bitcoin and Different Types of Uncertainty/Risk

What matters (as we ponder Russian actions in Ukraine (e.g., invasion). Will elevated geopolitical risk matter, and if so, how much?

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This entry was posted on January 30, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Correlations (II)

Reader Anonymous was skeptical that previous correlations between deaths, hospitalization and ICU shown in this post use would continue to hold, specifically, in a first differences specification:

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This entry was posted on January 29, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Guest Contribution: “Vaccination Mandates Are Not Government Over-reach”

Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy  School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.


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This entry was posted on January 28, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

GDP almost back to potential

The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 6.9% annual rate in the fourth quarter, more than twice the average growth rate the U.S. has seen since World War II.
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This entry was posted on January 27, 2022 by James_Hamilton.

Inflation Breakeven, TIPS and Term Spreads

Given the indications of tightening in the Fed’s statement today – both on rates and tapering – it’s surprising how little inflation breakeven moved. On the other hand, 5 year TIPS jumped 13 bps.

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This entry was posted on January 26, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

“Foreign Direct Investment under Uncertainty”

From the conclusion to NBER WP No 29687  (paper), coauthored with Caroline Jardet and Cristina Jude (both Banque de France):

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This entry was posted on January 24, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Bitcoin, VIX, and Expected Inflation

Bitcoin’s lost half its value since its recent peak. Could one explain this one’s students, quantitatively? First take a look at the the correlation with the most commonly discussed factor in the recent episode – risk.

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This entry was posted on January 22, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Data Sources Compendium [Updated]

Update of The Data Will Set You Free  (in preparation for a new semester!)

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This entry was posted on January 22, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Inflation: US vs. Euro Area and UK

We hear a lot about how expansionary US policy has led to accelerated inflation. Is that inflation much faster than what occurred in other regions? Consider the US, Euro Area and UK 3 month annualized consumer inflation rates (calculated as log differences).

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This entry was posted on January 21, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Recent Posts

  • Policy Uncertainty Spikes
  • Nowcasts and Tracking of “Core GDP”
  • Gold: The Challenger to Dollar Reserves?
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  • “That Drop in Consumer Income in May Was a False Recession Alarm”

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Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 6.8 (describes  2024:Q4)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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