Fell 34.3% (not annualized, in log terms) in July.
Yet More Alternative Real Wage Series, through Time
From FRED: Employed full time: Median usual weekly real earnings: Wage and salary workers: 16 years and over (LES1252881600Q), graphed along the familiar average hourly earnings per hour, total private industry, ex-nonproduction and supervisory workers, deflated by CPI:
Average and Median Wages through Time
Reader JohnH criticizes the use of average wages as indicators of the representative compensation, and suggests use of Social Security Administration data. Here are several measures taken from SSA, deflated by the CPI.
Real Wages through July
Reader JohnH notes that real wages year-on-year have fallen in July, as reported in the real earnings report. In times of big movements in variables, I find it useful to look at the actual time series.
PPI and CPI for July
From BLS today:
Inflation Deceleration – Multiple Measures
In today’s release, headline m/m CPI inflation was down sharply, from 11.4% to 5.8%, annualized. Various measures derived from the data in the release, including the inflation rate of the sticky price CPI — that focuses on infrequently changed prices — declined slightly, suggesting easing pressures. The trimmed CPI — which excises highly volatile components — was also falling indicating it’s not outliers driving July decreases.
Deceleration – The July CPI Release
From BLS today:
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.5 percent in July on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.9 percent in June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 5.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.
IPCC Projections and Simulations
The Economist has a summary of what yesterday’s IPCC report says. Here is a graphic that Deutsche Bank research is circulating.
China Growth in Question
The FT article “China Covid outbreak linked to Delta variant weighs on economy” (Hale, White, Shepherd) makes some grim reading, with several other articles having a similar take, citing Goldman Sachs. I was gripped by a sense of déjà vu. In my first lecture in January 2020 I cited the uncertainties for the trade/macro outlook given events in Wuhan. From FT:
A Rebound in Lumber Prices?
Reader JohnH points us to an article entitled “Lumber prices have fallen, but the stage is set for a potential 65% rally through the end of the year, an expert says”. What do markets say about this?