Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution by Steven Kamin (AEI), formerly Director of the Division of International Finance at the Federal Reserve Board. The views presented represent those of the authors, and not necessarily those of the institutions the authors are affiliated with.
Bitcoin and Different Types of Uncertainty/Risk
What matters (as we ponder Russian actions in Ukraine (e.g., invasion). Will elevated geopolitical risk matter, and if so, how much?
Correlations (II)
Guest Contribution: “Vaccination Mandates Are Not Government Over-reach”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.
GDP almost back to potential
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 6.9% annual rate in the fourth quarter, more than twice the average growth rate the U.S. has seen since World War II.
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Inflation Breakeven, TIPS and Term Spreads
Given the indications of tightening in the Fed’s statement today – both on rates and tapering – it’s surprising how little inflation breakeven moved. On the other hand, 5 year TIPS jumped 13 bps.
“Foreign Direct Investment under Uncertainty”
From the conclusion to NBER WP No 29687 (paper), coauthored with Caroline Jardet and Cristina Jude (both Banque de France):
Bitcoin, VIX, and Expected Inflation
Bitcoin’s lost half its value since its recent peak. Could one explain this one’s students, quantitatively? First take a look at the the correlation with the most commonly discussed factor in the recent episode – risk.
Data Sources Compendium [Updated]
Update of The Data Will Set You Free (in preparation for a new semester!)
Inflation: US vs. Euro Area and UK
We hear a lot about how expansionary US policy has led to accelerated inflation. Is that inflation much faster than what occurred in other regions? Consider the US, Euro Area and UK 3 month annualized consumer inflation rates (calculated as log differences).