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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

A Backgrounder on the Current Inflation Episode

From EconoFact (update of May 2021 version):

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This entry was posted on December 13, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

Some CPI Component Movements and Their Implications

Dean Baker has an interesting article conjecturing about future declines in the CPI, being driven by gasoline, cars, and food. The argument seems plausible, depending on what happens in the supply chains and the oil markets.  I want to consider what might happen, depending on other components.

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This entry was posted on December 13, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

Inflation Expectations

Before and after the November CPI release.

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This entry was posted on December 11, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

CPI Inflation in November

Month-on-month down, even if up year-on-year. Trimmed and sticky price inflation (m/m) are also down.

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This entry was posted on December 10, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

Longer Term Inflationary Implications of the Build Back Better Act

From the FT-IGM US Macroeconomists Survey:

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This entry was posted on December 10, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

Interests and Policy

Reader JohnH writes:

There is little discussion of the industry influence in the media, and even on Google, and certainly not among economists, who shun any discussion of power dynamics and corporate influence in the global economy like the plague.

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This entry was posted on December 9, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

FT-IGM US Macroeconomists Survey for December

The FT-IGM US Macroeconomists survey is out (it was conducted over the weekend). The results are summarized here, and an FT article here (gated). Here’s some of the results.

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This entry was posted on December 8, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

Inflation Breakeven, Term Spread, Risk and Uncertainty: A Snapshot

As we get additional news day by day, it’s useful to see what financial and other indicators have to say about the economic outlook.

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This entry was posted on December 6, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

Variation in the Potential Geographic Impact of Omicron

Very tentative (non-clinical test) indications are that vaccination helps reduce incidence and severity of infections from the omicron variant. If this proves true, then we should expect vaccination rates to be critical to impact. Here’s the map, county-by-county.

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This entry was posted on December 6, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

Real Wages through November

If current nowcasts are accurate, we see erosion in some real wages, but not even those for hospitality and leisure. That’s not true for total private NFP using the PCE deflator. [italics denote correction 12/5]

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This entry was posted on December 4, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 6.8 (describes  2024:Q4)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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