From a reader in 2018:

The people 2slugs disdains can overhaul an engine and cultivate a field way better than 2slugs, and have way more “common sense” than many university professors. The supposed nincompoop Trump voters in his 2 years have lead a national economic performance that Obama in his 8 years, lead by “elites” such as 2slugbaits, never did, and in fact said was impossible. Who is the expert here?

In 2017Q1-20Q1, GDP growth averaged 1.9%, and in Obama’s second term averaged 2.4%. (In Trump’s first two years, GDP growth averaged 2.6%. To be clear, what mainstream economists said was impossible was the 4% or 5% growth Trump promised.

In order to judge the analytical abilities of an individual, it is sometimes useful to look back at their previous assessments. Consider this comment:

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As the pace of growth has picked up, forecasts of ten year Treasury yields have risen as well. Here are some recent ones.

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Here’s a time series plot of 12 month moving averages of monthly global temperature anomalies for the northern hemisphere, both for land and ocean (blue) and land (red), (in degree C). Note: June is not included…

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