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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

Business Cycle Indicators, Mid-November

With the rebound in industrial production, and upward revisions in nonfarm payroll employment two weeks ago, key indicators look a little better than last post on this subject, a month ago.

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This entry was posted on November 17, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

Supply Chain Delays – Supply or Demand

As has been noted, the surge in goods demand is part of the story for why shortages and price pressures have mounted. Here’s another illustration.

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This entry was posted on November 17, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

Brent vs. WTI

In thinking about benchmarks, does it matter right now which oil price to refer to? Jim H. and others have noted Brent is a more appropriate benchmark for gasoline prices.

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This entry was posted on November 15, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

Oil Price Futures and Forecasts

Here’s a picture of Brent (monthly average of daily data) through October, and futures.

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This entry was posted on November 14, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

Hyperinflation, Illustrated

Phillip Cagan (1956,“The Monetary Dynamics of Hyperinflation”. Studies in the Quantity Theory of Money,” edited by Milton Friedman (1956), pp.25-1) defined hyperinflation as inflation in excess of 50% per month (or about 13,000% annualized).

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This entry was posted on November 14, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

Some Useful Terms in Economics

There are some terms used on this blog that provoke some confusion. Here are some quick definitions that might help some readers.

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This entry was posted on November 13, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

Oil Price Pass Through into Gasoline Prices

From Hakan Yilmazkuday, “Oil Price Pass-Through into Consumer Prices: Evidence from U.S. Weekly Data”, forthcoming in JIMF:

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This entry was posted on November 12, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

Latest One Year Horizon Inflation Expectations

Michigan (preliminary) remains high and NY Fed rises 40 bps; both are consumer based. Cleveland Fed forecast is lower than in September.

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This entry was posted on November 12, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

Gasoline Prices through Time

Conventional gasoline price since 1990.

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This entry was posted on November 11, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

Are Low Wage Wages Keeping Up with Inflation

If accommodation and food service wages evolve in October in the same way the have covaried with overall leisure and hospitality service wages, then the answer is yes, for a variety of price indexes.

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This entry was posted on November 10, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Recent Posts

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Current Indicators

Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 6.8 (describes  2024:Q4)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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