A tautology:
MV ≡ PQ
Advanced Country Headline Inflation Rates – May 2022
High inflation not just in the US:
“Neither model could identify this effect as different from 0.”
Key phrase buried in the Appendix to the Badger Institute‘s study entitled: “Unemployment (Over)compensation: How the federal supplemental unemployment benefits impacted unemployment during the pandemic” (April 2022).
When People Who Don’t Understand Basic Time Series Analysis Try to Talk Time Series Analysis
From 2019, pay special attention to CoRev’s statistical analysis (at the end):
Guest Contribution: “A Resilience Case for International Trade”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.
How Have Wisconsin Goods Exports Fared since 2018
I’m giving a presentation on what determines Wisconsin exports. Here’s an interesting finding – since 2018, real goods exports have underperformed what would’ve been expected based on rest-of-world GDP and the real value of the US dollar.
About 40 Years of Inflation Expectations Errors – Economists vs. Households
From the Michigan consumer survey and the Survey of Professional Forecasters:
Guest Contribution: ” Does monetary policy respond to temperature shocks?”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Filippo Natoli of the Directorate General for Economics, Statistics and Research of the Bank of Italy. The views presented in this note represent those of the author and not necessarily reflect those of the Bank of Italy.
Five Year Inflation Breakeven, Growth Prospects and Recession – Market Messages
At February 10th levels, but 10yr-2yr term spread below.
First Annual FRB-NYFED Conference on the “International Roles of the U.S. Dollar”
That’s the title of a conference (June 16-17) I had the pleasure of participating in. The agenda is shown below (I have included links to the papers where publicly available, but they might not be to the most recent version; Online agenda). This conference went well beyond recounting the main features associated with the dollar’s role, presenting both new empirical work (some based on micro data) and new theoretical work — ranging from the dominant currency pricing in a New Keynesian model to an explanation for staged capital account liberalization for the Chinese bond market, against a backdrop of rapid developments in digital currencies/assets and financial sanctions.