MilitaryNews just now:
Trump is not ruling out sending U.S. troops to secure Gaza, saying in response to a reporter’s question: “As far as Gaza is concerned, we’ll do what is necessary. If it’s necessary, we’ll do that.”
Soybeans, Again
You might well wonder why China didn’t retaliate against US soybean exports in the wake of Trump’s 10% tax on Chinese goods. Was it because heavy tariffs were already in place in response to the earlier Section 301 tariffs? No, given the Phase 1 of the trade deal (not that there was ever a Phase 2), tariffs were reduce. Here’s the current situation, from the National Corn Growers Association.
Fourth (maybe Third) Largest Tax Increase Ever – China 2025 Tariffs
No tariffs yet on Canada, Mexico (and EU for that matter). Still, 10% on $427 bn imports (on top of previous tariffs) is a big deal.
Doug Irwin, On Tariffs
Doug Irwin, my coauthor of International Economics, is in the news today, for obvious reasons.
Uncertainty – Economic and Trade Policy, Day by Day
Through 2/2/2025 (for EPU):
How Did this Guy Get a Ph.D. in Economics?
From Heritage Foundation’s EJ Antoni, “Trump’s tariff critics are trading on overblown and unfounded fears”:
Bringing Down Grocery Prices, Trump Style
CPI food at home is 8% of total CPI weights, fresh vegetables and fruit are 1.1%. Assume half of fresh vegetable and fruit are imported from Mexico (about 2/3 of fresh vegetables are imported from Mexico), and assume only half of the 25% tariff is passed on to US consumers (large country assumption). Then here’s a picture of the CPI for groceries, the January USDA ERS forecast and the implied level of grocery prices, assuming the tariffs are eventually placed.
(Would’a Been) Biggest Tax Increase Ever!
In nominal dollar terms. Thanks, Trump.
I Guess I Picked the Wrong Week…
to you know what (apologies to Abrahams and the Zuckers).
In one day, US taxes roughly $2.4 trn worth of goods (2023 amounts). Biggest one year tax increase in dollar terms since… ever, at $364 bn (if Trump goes through with plans). Automatic escalation clauses if the target countries retaliate (Canada already has declared).
Canadian Oil, Tariffs, and Gas Prices in PADD 2
Should’a bought that EV! Joseph Brusuelas notes tariffs should show up in gas prices in the Midwest pretty quick, as the region gets its oil from Canada.