Conference Board index at 98.3 vs. 102.7 Bloomberg consensus, down from upwardly revised 105.3. Here is a picture of (standardized) U.Michigan Sentiment, Conference Board and Gallup Confidence measures.
EPU Today: 655
A big jump:
The 50th anniversary of Alice Rivlin’s tenure as the founding director of CBO
From the CBO website:
NFP Prospects
Kalshi betting right now is for 300K reduction in force for the Federal government (h/t Torsten Slok):
“so called economists at the Fed”
That’s EJ Antoni talking on something called Wealthion at minute 3:30.
A Fed Inflation Credibility Index under Trump
Using 5 year ahead inflation expectations from the Michigan survey, not so much erosion in Trump 1.0. Trump 2.0 so far is another story.
Guess I Picked the Wrong Week to…Stop Recommending Vaccinations
From the betting markets (Kalshi.com) yesterday:
The Mother of All Magic Asterisks
The House Budget, as expected, is not a serious document — see the tables. I’ll skip the fantasy spending cuts, and focus on revenue plans. From CRFB:
Dis-Inversion and Re-Inversion over the Last 3 Months
Not sure what it means, but I suspect heightened growth anxieties for the 4 month to 3 years horizon.
Consumer Expectations Crash, 1 Year Ahead Inflation Expectations Soar as 5 Year Ahead Hits Record
5 year ahead inflation at 3.5%, highest since 1995M04. From Michigan Survey of Consumers: