A chamber opera with music by Laura Schwendinger, libretto by Ginger Strand, in Houston this weekend.
Market Implied Expected Rates
Interestingly, if implied forwards are to be believed, the Fed won’t be raising rates too fast.
Not “No Exit” – Just “One Exit”
Business Cycle Indicators, March 1st
IHS-Markit just released its monthly GDP estimate for January, with 0% growth q/q. Bloomberg consensus for February nonfarm payroll shaved down to 400K, from 450K on 2/25.
A Forecast on Russian Policy Rate, Inflation
From Wells Fargo today:
Risk, noon March 1st
Figure 1: Geopolitical Risk index – Acts (blue, left scale) and VIX (brown, right scale). 3/1 observation for VIX as of noon EST. Source: CBOE via FRED, Caldara and Iacoviello, accessed 3/1/2022.
Russian Exchange Rate Pass Through into Consumer Prices
For Russia, it’s maybe 10%-17% for 1 quarter, 50%-70% for 4 quarters.
Risk and Safe Haven Effects
VIX up as GeoPolitical Risk rises. Dollar jumps on the invasion, but eases today, Treasury yields down due to safe haven effects. Anticipated interest rate increases moderate.
FT-IGM February Survey of Macroeconomists
Survey taken last week, published today here. The FT-IGM Survey of Macroeconomists median forecast implies this path for GDP:
Russia Deploys the Interest Rate Defense (and probably everything else)
Russia raises the policy rate to 20%, from 9.5%, which was itself raised on 2/11.