Some observations: (1) The blockbuster number (943 K vs 870K fm Bloomberg consensus) has to be kept in perspective, as NFP employment is far below trend, (2) high contact intensive services employment was recovering quickly through the reference period before the delta variant surge, (3) both average nominal wages and aggregate hours continued to rise, and (4) average real wages likely stabilized in July, at about 1.5% above 2016-19 trend.
Predicting the Lumber PPI for July-September
Calculated Risk (h/t pgl) noted the decline in futures lumber prices. Joseph has argued that this won’t necessarily show up in actual prices paid by the consumer for a while. I don’t have retail prices, but I have the BLS measure one step removed from consumers, the PPI for lumber.
Market Inflation Expectations and Real Rates
Is the inflation scare bubble over?
As of yesterday, the five year inflation breakeven was 2.5%, down from 2.72% in mid-May. The estimated inflation risk and liquidity premia adjusted 5 year breakeven was 1.62% as of 7/30 (when the corresponding actual breakeven was 2.56%).
CDC Ensemble Model Ups Predicted Florida Weekly Deaths
Compare the CDC ensemble forecast released today, as compared to that generated the previous week and discussed in this post.
What Would I Have Predicted for 2020 Acres Burned If I Had Looked at YTD Figures, One Year Ago?
If I didn’t know anything about the changing pattern of wildfire burns, I would’ve probably concluded “all clear”. To see this, consider the following picture I could’ve drawn a year ago:
US-China Economic Relations on Talking Trade
I had the pleasure of speaking with UW’s Ian Coxhead and Sandi Siegel, President of MITA and of ME Dey, at Talking Trade last week about trade, direct investment and competition in technology production.
Is Economic Policy Uncertainty Really This Low in Hong Kong?
The Economic Policy Uncertainty index, calculated using the Baker, Bloom and Davis methodology:
Business Cycle Indicators as of August 2
IHS-MarkIt (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) released monthly GDP today. The July employment situation will be released this Friday.
If Hospitalizations Lead Fatalities: Prospects for Florida
With large shares of populations vaccinated, case counts are no longer a good predictor of fatalities arising from Covid-19. Hospitalization might prove better (and ICU hospitalizations even better). The statistics do not augur well, particularly for Florida.
Geographical Diversity in Journal Editing (and the J Int Money Finance)
Angus, Atalay, Newton and Ubilava write “Editorial boards of leading economics journals show high institutional concentration and modest geographic diversity”. There’s no doubt diversity of all types is an issue of concern in the economics professions, and here’s one more dimension.