Data out of BEA today shows 2% q/q SAAR growth in Q3 – but all of it can be accounted for by the 2.7% contribution from inventories. Jim will be presenting his views on the Q3 release later today.
Updated Figure 1: GDP, 2021Q3 advance release (black), implied GDP from Atlanta Fed 10/27 nowcast (red triangle), IHS-MarkIt 10/27 (sky blue square), Bloomberg consensus 10/26 (brown square), Goldman Sachs 10/27 tracking forecast (inverted pink triangle), and mean forecast from WSJ October survey (green line). Levels calculated using reported growth rates and latest GDP for Q2. Source: Atlanta Fed, IHS-Markit, Bloomberg, Goldman-Sachs, WSJ October survey, and author’s calculations.
Atlanta Fed nowcast cut from 0.4% to 0.2% q/q SAAR, Goldman Sachs from 3.25% to 2.27%. This revises the graph in yesterday’s post.