The White House economic assumptions (based on February data) released today in the FY ’22 budget imply full employment output at year’s end, contrasting with 1.4% using Survey of Professional Forecasters (from May)
Guest Contribution: “Statistics and the Pandemic”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.
One Year Ahead Inflation Expectations
and expectations for May…
Business Cycle Indicators and Inflation, End-May 2021
April personal income and consumption figures were released today, along with real manufacturing and trade industry sales. Here’s a depiction of these figures in the context of key macro indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee:
Inflation Squeeze on Wages?
Relative compression vis a vis recent past (not controlling for composition), but still up since the onset of the pandemic.
Wisconsin’s Recovery: Employment, Coincident Index, GDP, Personal Income
In progress, but incomplete.
Steel Tariffs and Iron/Steel Prices
The Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum were a bad idea during the Trump administration. They’re still a bad idea.
A Logged Look at Bitcoin
If you believe the world is in base e, then this is a better picture of the Bitcoin’s progress.
Firm Inflation Expectations – a New Survey
From a new working paper by Candia, Coibion and Gorodnichenko:
Enhanced Unemployment Benefits in Wisconsin and Disincentives
From WPR, “Top Wisconsin Republicans Call For Ending Enhanced Unemployment Benefits”:
Two of the Legislature’s top Republicans say they’ll pass a bill that would cut off federal unemployment insurance benefits that were added during the COVID-19 pandemic, saying they’re no longer needed and they’re making it harder for businesses to find workers.