The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced yesterday that U.S. real GDP grew at a 2.6% annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2018. That’s below the 3.1% average for the U.S. economy over the last 70 years, but better than the 2.2% average rate since the recovery from the Great Recession began in 2009:Q3.
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Guest Contribution: “Bold Ideas are Not Always Better than Old Ideas”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared in Project Syndicate on February 25th.
Continue readingIs California in Recession? (Part XV)
Back a little over a year ago, Political Calculations asked if California was in recession.
Going by these [household survey based labor market] measures, it would appear that recession has arrived in California, which is partially borne out by state level GDP data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. [text as accessed on 12/27/2017]
Today’s release of the 2018Q3 state GDP figures provides an opportunity to revisit this question — it’s likely no recession occurred.
Continue readingIf a Recession Shows Up in 2020, Who Will Have Predicted It?
Recessions, once they are underway, happen fast — a lot faster than expansions. Who’s forecasting recessions, according to the WSJ February survey (the February Survey of Professional Forecasters has been postponed until March because of the data delays associated with the Trump government shutdown).
Continue readingDid Minnesota’s Minimum Wage Hikes Hit the Fast Food Sector Hard?
I don’t think so. But you be the judge:
Continue readingThe VSD (“Very Stable Dollar”)
Is this what we want the Chinese to peg against?
Continue readingTime Series on Term Spreads, Yield Curve Snapshots
Part of the yield curve is already inverted.
Continue readingA Primer on Exchange Rate Misalignment (Updated)
As the administration pushes for “stability” in the Chinese exchange rate while imposing tariffs on China, it might be useful to recount the various ways in which different observers define currency “misalignment”. Here I update a primer first posted in 2010.
Continue readingCrazy Definitions of Equilibrium Exchange Rates
“The Coalition for a Prosperous America” releases what it burbles as a “Groundbreaking CPA Study…” entitled “Quantifying Economic Growth and Job Creation from a Competitive Dollar”. Don’t be fooled by all the footnotes and the numbers. At the basis of the analysis is the aphorism: “Neither a borrower nor a lender be”.
Continue readingIndustrial and Manufacturing Production Decline: Whence the Business Cycle?
Interesting news even as we are flying partly blind (some government series are still lagging).
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