The entire quote is here.
A Unit Root in a Bounded Series?
Commenting on the Kansas Palmer Drought Severity Index, Rick Stryker writes: “From a theoretical point of view it must be stationary.” He reasons that this is so, because it is bounded between -10 and +10. Question: Is this a relevant piece of information when examining finite samples? Let’s look at consumption as a share of GDP, which must be bounded between 0 and 1.
Figure 1: Nominal consumption to GDP ratio, SAAR (blue). Source: BEA, author’s calculations.
Links for 2016-09-11
Quick links to a few items I found interesting.
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Beyond Bivariate: Modeling Quarterly Kansas GDP
How to — and not do — time series analysis
“Policy Challenges in a Diverging Global Economy”
That’s the title of the volume of proceedings of the 2015 Asia Economic Policy Conference, edited Reuven Glick and Mark M. Spiegel.
Three Trillion Dollars Spent in Iraq?
Long time readers of Econbrowser know that I have tabulating US direct outlays in Operation Iraqi Freedom, and operations thereafter. Imagine my surprise when in The Commander in Chief Forum, Donald J. Trump stated that we’d spent three trillion dollars. This prompted me to refer to actual, real-world, data. As far as I can tell, three trillion is not a number that exists in reality.
Supply cuts lift oil prices
The price of crude oil has had some sharp swings over the last month. But the trend since January has clearly been up.
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Rookie Economist Errors
Guest Contribution: “Column by Trump Adviser is Not Economically Literate”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers.
Two Pictures of a “Hoax”
Complete quote: “Obama’s talking about all of this with the global warming and … a lot of it’s a hoax. It’s a hoax. I mean, it’s a money-making industry, OK? It’s a hoax, a lot of it.” — Donald J. Trump, 30 December 2015.