On the release of the Productivity and Costs release, the WSJ reports “Weak Productivity, Rising Wages Putting Pressure on U.S. Companies: Economists fret how trends may affect inflation and broader growth”.
Recession Watch, June 2016
Since Friday’s employment release, [1] there’s been a surge in articles discussing the possibility of a recession.
Figure 1: Google Trends index for “Recession”, last 30 days, in Business and Finance category. Source: Google, accessed 6/7, 11PM Pacific.
Time for a look at some key indicators the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee [1] has looked at in the past.
Guest Contribution: “China Should Rebalance by Following the Fed”
Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Gunther Schnabl, Professor of Economics and Business Administration at Leipzig University.
Currency Misalignment, 2016: FEER vs. Penn Effect
The Peterson Institute for International Economics’ William Cline has just published estimates of equilibrium exchange rates for May 2016; the USD is 7% overvalued, while the Chinese yuan (CNY) is at its “FEER level”.
A Conspiracy So Vast…
One of the craziest posts I have read in recent years alleges that the US government has deliberately set out to destabilize the world economy in order to … lower Federal financing costs!
Some Messages from the Employment Release
Employment growth is downgraded, according to several measures, and manufacturing employment is particularly hard hit.
Guest Contribution: “How Much Does the EMU Benefit Trade?”
Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Reuven Glick at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and Andrew Rose at the University of California at Berkeley. The views expressed below do not represent those of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (FRBSF) or the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This blog is an updated version of FRBSF Economic Letter 2016-09, March 21, 2016.
Republican Outreach to Asian-American Voters Continues Apace
A poll conducted from April 11 to May 17 by the Asian and Pacific Islander American (APIA) Vote, Asian Americans Advancing Justice (AAJC) and AAPI Data provides some interesting results regarding the Republican project to increase influence in this demographic.
More on the Kansas Economy
With Philadelphia Fed leading indices out, I still don’t know if it constitutes a “disaster”, but it’s not particularly good.
The Trade Slowdown, China, and the Rest of the World
“China and Asia in Global Trade Slowdown”