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Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

China’s economic slowdown

U.S. stock prices as measured by the S&P500 fell almost 7% last week. What’s going on?

Value of S&P500 index over last 3 months.  Source: Google Finance.

Value of S&P500 index over last 3 months. Source: Google Finance.


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This entry was posted on August 23, 2015 by James_Hamilton.

Projecting 2015 Acres Burned and Firefighting Expenditures

bluecreekfire

Blue Creek fire, close to Walla Walla, WA. Photo: Greg Lehman, AP. Source: Seattle Post-Intelligencer.

Reader CoRev asserts wildfire intensity has not been severe of late. I’ll just graph some data to bring reality to the interested.

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This entry was posted on August 22, 2015 by Menzie Chinn.

Remember: “Global warming is a total, and very expensive, hoax!”

So said Republican Presidential candidate Donald Trump. Pay no heed to the massive wildfires. And temperature readings.

Here is a map of current fires in the US (see here for Canada):

InciWeb the Incident Information System _Fires_July2_2015

Source: NOAA.

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This entry was posted on August 21, 2015 by Menzie Chinn.

Wisconsin NFP Employment Almost Reaches Prior Peak

Civilian employment falls to 1.3% below prior peak.

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This entry was posted on August 20, 2015 by Menzie Chinn.

Wisconsin (Not) Outpacing Other States

Wisconsin is not outpacing its neighbors according to the Philadelphia Fed’s coincident indices meant to proxy economic activity; and, contrary to assertions [1], the lagging pace of Wisconsin is not apparently attributable to a milder downturn in Wisconsin.

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This entry was posted on August 18, 2015 by Menzie Chinn.

Governor Walker on Who Should Be Considered an American

From Washington Post:

GOP presidential hopeful Scott Walker said Monday that children of illegal immigrants who are born in the United States should not automatically receive U.S. citizenship.

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This entry was posted on August 18, 2015 by Menzie Chinn.

Guest Contribution: “Recent Experience with Monetary Sovereignty”

Today we are fortunate to have a guest contribution by Helen Popper, professor of economics at Santa Clara University.


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This entry was posted on August 16, 2015 by Menzie Chinn.

Evaluating the Chinese Devaluation

The 2% devaluation of the Chinese yuan on Monday, and subsequent 1.6% weakening on Tuesday, was variously described as surprising and stunning. I think it was to be expected, given China’s slowing growth, although there was no particular reason to believe Monday would be the day. In evaluating the effects, one has to first place the drop in context.

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This entry was posted on August 12, 2015 by Menzie Chinn.

Guest Contribution: “Gas Taxes and Oil Subsidies: Time for Reform”

Today we are fortunate to have a guest contribution written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor of Capital Formation and Growth at Harvard University, and former Member of the Council of Economic Advisers, 1997-99. A shorter version was published at Project Syndicate.


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This entry was posted on August 11, 2015 by Menzie Chinn.

Kansas: The Macro Outlook

The politics of the The Kansas Experiment were recounted in Sunday’s NYT Magazine. Does the economic crash continue?

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This entry was posted on August 11, 2015 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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