Among the disappointments in the 2015:Q1 GDP figures was weak consumption growth, which was a little surprising given the extra cash most consumers have on hand as a result of lower energy prices. I wanted to take a look at how the recent consumer behavior compares with what we’ve seen historically.
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April Employment Situation: Revisions, Energy Extraction, Manufacturing
The April Employment release confirmed continued growth in total and private employment. My observations: some modest downward revisions, and some sectoral trends diverge.
Guest Contribution: “Asia Games: Not Zero-Sum”
Today we are fortunate to have a guest contribution written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor of Capital Formation and Growth at Harvard University, and former Member of the Council of Economic Advisers, 1997-99. An earlier version of this post appeared at Project Syndicate.
Trade (Head)Winds
Chinn-Ito Financial Openness Index Updated to 2013
The Chinn-Ito index revised and updated to 2013 is now available here.
Kansas Short Term Economic Outlook: Not So Great
Here’s the Philadelphia Fed’s revamped coincident index and the six month forecast for Kansas economic activity.
Economy stalls in the first quarter
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that U.S. real GDP grew at a 0.2% annual rate in the first quarter. And that was even after a big inventory build-up from goods produced but not sold. Taking out the inventory contribution, real final sales fell by half a percent at an annual rate.
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Newly Revamped Coincident Indices Indicate … Wisconsin Still Lags
and is forecasted to continue to lag.
What Remains of the High Policy Uncertainty-Lagging Investment Thesis?
The abstract from the recent IMF’s World Economic Outlook chapter on investment:
Private fixed investment in advanced economies contracted sharply during the global financial crisis, and there has been little recovery since. … business investment accounts for the bulk of the slump, and the overriding factor holding it back has been the overall weakness of economic activity. In some countries, other contributing factors include financial constraints and policy uncertainty. These findings suggest that addressing the general weakness in economic activity is crucial for restoring growth in private investment.
Foreign Reserve Accumulation Tails Off
And actually decline, in dollar terms.