The BEA released quarterly state GDP figures today. As of 2015Q4, Kansas has just experienced two consecutive negative GDP growth, a distinction shared with only three other states — Alaska, Oklahoma and Wyoming (North Dakota experienced three quarters of negative growth, but experienced positive growth in Q4). Over the past five quarters, Kansas has experienced four quarters of negative GDP growth.
Recession Risks: The View from Wall Street Economists
The Wall Street Journal‘s June survey of economists is out. Interestingly, no one’s mean forecast is for two quarters of negative growth in 2016Q2-Q3 (or even one quarter!), but the assigned probabilities of recession remain elevated.
Data Paranoia Watch: Employment Edition
Which one of these texts is drawn from a real article?
Thinking about Wages, Inflation and Productivity… and Capital’s Share
On the release of the Productivity and Costs release, the WSJ reports “Weak Productivity, Rising Wages Putting Pressure on U.S. Companies: Economists fret how trends may affect inflation and broader growth”.
Recession Watch, June 2016
Since Friday’s employment release, [1] there’s been a surge in articles discussing the possibility of a recession.
Figure 1: Google Trends index for “Recession”, last 30 days, in Business and Finance category. Source: Google, accessed 6/7, 11PM Pacific.
Time for a look at some key indicators the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee [1] has looked at in the past.
Guest Contribution: “China Should Rebalance by Following the Fed”
Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Gunther Schnabl, Professor of Economics and Business Administration at Leipzig University.
Currency Misalignment, 2016: FEER vs. Penn Effect
The Peterson Institute for International Economics’ William Cline has just published estimates of equilibrium exchange rates for May 2016; the USD is 7% overvalued, while the Chinese yuan (CNY) is at its “FEER level”.
A Conspiracy So Vast…
One of the craziest posts I have read in recent years alleges that the US government has deliberately set out to destabilize the world economy in order to … lower Federal financing costs!
Some Messages from the Employment Release
Employment growth is downgraded, according to several measures, and manufacturing employment is particularly hard hit.
Guest Contribution: “How Much Does the EMU Benefit Trade?”
Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Reuven Glick at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and Andrew Rose at the University of California at Berkeley. The views expressed below do not represent those of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (FRBSF) or the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This blog is an updated version of FRBSF Economic Letter 2016-09, March 21, 2016.