Following up on the dollar’s status as an international currency (and how threats of default are not helpful), here is what we know about the dollar’s role as a reserve currency.
Why isn’t inflation lower?
With so much slack in the economy and so many Americans still looking for jobs, why hasn’t inflation been falling further? University of Texas Professor Olivier Coibion and Berkeley Professor Yuriy Gorodnichenko propose an answer in an interesting new research paper.
Data Paranoia Watch
Reader Anonymous (Oct 25, 7:34AM) cites approvingly a ZeroHedge “analysis” that asserts the BLS tweaked the data to make it look like there was a big shift in employment from part time to full time. Here’s the ZeroHedge graph:
Better to Light a Candle…
Against a backdrop of people who are dismissive of data and expertise, it is refreshing to see analysts rise to the challenge of tracking the economy while the government shutdown delayed the release of critical macroeconomic data. From Jim Stock of the CEA, “Economic Activity during the Government Shutdown and Debt Brinksmanship”:
American Debt, Chinese Anxiety, Elaborated
Or, how the Tea Party is working hard to sabotage the dollar’s role in global finance.
Estimates of the effects of the Fed’s large-scale asset purchases
I attended a conference this weekend on lessons from the financial crisis for monetary policy. Among many interesting presentations, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams provided updated estimates on the effectiveness of large-scale asset purchases and forward guidance.
The Aftermath
Update, 10/20 12PM Pacific
After the failure of the Republican effort to defund the Affordable Care Act, what is the net macro effect? According the IHS-Global Insight, and S&P [1], 0.6 ppts were shaved off 2013Q4 GDP growth (SAAR). S&P puts a dollar figure to this impact — $24 billion in lost output.
Policy Uncertainty, October 14
Policy uncertainty, as measured by the Baker, Bloom and Davis index, is skyrocketing.
An exit strategy for Republicans
Like many other Americans and observers around the world, I find the ongoing spectacle in Washington both perplexing and distressing. But having seen the President follow the advice of our mighty blog for choosing the next chair of the Federal Reserve, I feel emboldened now to recommend a course of action for the House Republicans.
The State of Energy Markets in Mid-October
Who Knows?