From the Americans for Prosperity-Wisconsin:
In the last four years, Biden’s reckless spending has driven the national debt past $34 trillion – more than $258,000 of debt per household – and Americans’ purchasing power has declined as families have seen the prices of goods and services rise much faster than their income. Prices are now 17.9% higher and the average household is paying over $11,400 more each year just to maintain the same quality of life as when Biden took office.
That’s climatologist/macroeconomist/epidemiologist Steven Kopits remarking on 70 degrees F high in Madison today. For context, some historical data from here:
So, my impression that things are warming up is not just me…
Today we present a guest post written by Lindsay Jacobs, Assistant Professor at the Robert M. La Follette School of Public Affairs, at the University of Wisconsin, Madison.
Today we present a guest post written by Matías Scaglione and Romina Soria, co-founders of the data science and economic consulting firm Motio Research. This post offers a concise introduction to a new monthly series of U.S. household income data officially launched by Motio Research in December 2023.
Personal spending comes in at consensus, personal income above. Here’s a picture of key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee plus monthly GDP.
With the second release for GDP, we have the following picture of aggregate output:
From BLS today:
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.
With two quarters of GDP decline in the UK according to the current vintage of data, it’s reasonable to ask if the UK is in recession. ONS discusses the limitations of using the two-quarter rule of thumb here. Figure 2 of this study illustrates the dangers of relying upon the two-quarter rule when the GDP data are subject to revision. See additional discussion using the “technical” definition, AP, CNN, Bloomberg. It’s also of interest to consider whether statistical methods relying on financial indicators would have predicted a recession, variously defined.