Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. An earlier version appeared at Project Syndicate and the Guardian.
A self test (a follow up to this post):
“Trumpflation” Risks Likely Overstated by Lance Roberts via Zerohedge:
The percentage change is less than that for the CES estimate. Does this mean there are a lot fewer people employed that indicated by the official series (e.g. here)? Here’s data from 2023M06 onward:
Locking up the butter in Russia (CNN). Official inflation in October was 0.8% m/m (annualize that and it’s about 10%. That’s the official inflation rate. The ex post rate is around 11% then.
Since the incoming administration has indicated the deportations will start on day one, I thought it of use to consider the sectoral impacts of a policy of mass deportation (aside from macro based ones as discussed here).
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Joshua Aizenman (University of Southern California) and Jamel Saadaoui (Université Paris 8-Vincennes). This post is based on the paper of the same title.
Including HICP and nowcasted PCE deflator.
Daniel Lacalle via Zerohedge writes Continue reading
Not that it ever disappeared completely. But expect the EPU to rise as the tariffs start flying, and the deportations begin.