Skip to content

Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

Naval Deployments as of 8/12/2024

From the US Naval Institute:

Continue reading →

This entry was posted on August 15, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Kursk 2024 – Update 8/15/2024

From MilitaryLand.

Continue reading →

This entry was posted on August 15, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Business Cycle Indicators – NBER and Alternative – Mid-July 2024

With the Fed’s industrial production release (-0.6% m/m vs. -0.3% consensus) and retail sales (+1.0% m/m vs. +0.4% consensus), we have the following pictures, the first of the indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, plus monthly GDP.

Continue reading →

This entry was posted on August 15, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Instantaneous Core Inflation: Five Measures

With the CPI release, we have new July observations for 3 series.

Continue reading →

This entry was posted on August 14, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

The Great Replacement “Theory” * Comes to Economics at Heritage

Heritage Foundation’s    EJ Antoni writes on X (August 2):

Over the last year, native-born Americans have LOST 1.2 million jobs while foreign-born employment has increased 1.3 million; we’re just swapping out American workers at this point, not growing the pie for everyone…

Continue reading →

This entry was posted on August 13, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

PPI Downside Surprise

Core PPI 0.0% m/m vs +0.2% consensus (+2.4% y/y vs. +2.7% consensus). Here’s a picture of instantaneous core measures.

Continue reading →

This entry was posted on August 13, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Oxford Economics: Recession at 3 & 6 Months Horizons

If you’re wondering about a recession by the time the election rolls around…

Continue reading →

This entry was posted on August 12, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Podcast: On the Macroeconomy, and on Wisconsin

Me, interviewed with Buzz Kemper, on BadgerTalks, recorded on 8/6 (Episode 44).

Continue reading →

This entry was posted on August 12, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

One Year Ahead CPI Inflation Expectations down in July for Consumers, Firms, Economists

Last one for August (from Survey of Professional Forecasters).

Continue reading →

This entry was posted on August 12, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Already in Recession?

Pascal Michaillat (UCSC) and Emmanuel Saez (UC Berkeley) say 40% probability, yes. From the abstract to the paper:

Continue reading →

This entry was posted on August 11, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Post navigation

← Older posts
Newer posts →

Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

Folow us on Twitter

  • James Hamilton
  • Menzie Chinn

Recent Posts

  • June Alternative Indicators Down from Peak
  • Effective Tariff Rates *before* Copper & Brazil
  • Copper, Bolsonaro (Coffee): Predict Trade Policy Uncertainty for 7/10
  • GDP Impact of 87.5K Removals/Yr
  • When “Liberation Day” Replaces “Infrastructure Week” Replaces “Groundhog Day” ™…

Categories

Archives

Current Indicators

Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 6.8 (describes  2024:Q4)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

Proudly powered by WordPress