I have delayed reviewing this portion of chapter 26 of the Project 2025 because I knew it would be painful to read. But as the election nears, it’s incumbent upon all of us to take up our burdens in support of good policy. So here is some key text from this portion of the chapter, written by my onetime (40-42 years ago) coauthor Peter Navarro (the second portion, “The case for free trade” by Kent Lassman is a useful orthodox treatment of trade policy).
Revisiting the Recession Call of 2022H1
Now that we’re talking recession (again), it seems like a good idea to remind ourselves of the last time some observers declared unequivocally that we were in recession, to wit, Steven Kopits, January 2, 2023:
Each Time I Read Something Out of WMC, I Experience Cognitive Dissonance
From the just-released Summer WMC Wisconsin Employer Survey:
GDPNow vs. WSJ July Forecast
From Atlanta Fed today, 2.9% SAAR in Q3:
Recession Predictions from Six Months Ago
From a February 1st post:
Recession Indicator Sit-Rep
NBER BCDC key indicators, alternative indicators, weekly indicators:
Weekly Business Cycle Indicators – Data through 7/27
Bitcoin as Store of Value
Bitcoin vs. VIX:
Fed Funds Path as of Noon ET
From CME:
Who Better Predicted the Transitory Inflation Surge of 2021-24?
Consumers, CEO’s, or economists?