I thought this was an interesting editorial in Tuesday’s WSJ.
How Bad Is This Recession? And Why? — Illustrated Version
Chapter 3 of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook has a great summary figure:
Update on the latest economic indicators
Some good news, some bad, in the indicators we follow this week.
Macroeconomic Schisms
There has been a lot of breast-beating in the press and in the blogosphere about how economists failed to discern the possibility that not all was going well in the years leading up the current financial and economic crisis [1]. I think the notion that all economists were blithely optimistic has been dispelled (well, okay, here’s a couple of exceptions: Dan Gross h/t Free Exchange, A. Kaletsky). At the risk of some gross simplifications, I will speculate that there was —
until recently — less optimism among academic macroeconomists than Wall Street economists. There was probably less anxiety among
say finance professors who focused on asset pricing (as opposed those who worked in banking) than macroeconomists (Dani Rodrik highlights the diversity). One divide that
I think is not particularly relevant in locating the source of the crisis is the most well known one — specifically whether prices
are sticky.
In my opinion, the big divide in thinking relates to how economists conceive of financial markets working. This is a divide that cuts across other divides. For instance, the Hicksian
decomposition (IS-LM), in its simplest incarnation, treats the financial world as one wherein bonds are identical, and the only means of borrowing; there is no separate channel for lending, say via bank loans, to influence aggregate demand (see this post for the many channels of monetary policy). In the real business cycle literature, and many New Keynesian DSGE models, there is a representative bond (and lending rate) which summarizes the asset markets (see Camilo Tovar’s survey of DSGEs for a discussion).
IMF World Economic Outlook
Is out…
- Link to webpage.
- Link to Chapter 3. From Recession to Recovery: How Soon and How Strong?
- Link to Chapter 4. How Linkages Fuel the Fire: The Transmission of Financial Stress from Advanced to Emerging Economies (a preview of some results was in this post).
The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index
Last weekend I attended an excellent conference on business cycles hosted by UC Riverside (program details here). Among the many interesting presentations was an update from University of Maryland Professor Boragan Aruoba on the index of current business conditions that he developed with Professor Frank Diebold of the University of Pennsylvania and Federal Reserve economist Chiara Scotti.
The Demise of the Dollar? Should We Worry about Quantitative Easing and Deficit Spending?
Over the weekend, I was working on my long delayed manuscript on exchange rate modeling [0], and pondering how useful the conventional econometric techniques were for making predictions about the future value of the dollar.
Mortgage fraud
Why sell crack when taking money from a careless lender is so much easier and more profitable?
Growth Expectations Stabilize
The WSJ survey of forecasts has just come out [link]. One key finding is that the mean forecast has barely budged since March. In other words, unlike previous months, the perceived outlook has ceased deteriorating.
Initial unemployment claims and the end of recessions
Fed Chair Ben Bernanke a few weeks ago said he saw some green shoots
of favorable developments in financial markets. Does today’s Labor Department report that the seasonally adjusted number of initial claims for unemployment insurance fell by 20,000 workers in the most recent week constitute another?