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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

Who Better Predicted the Transitory Inflation Surge of 2021-24?

Consumers, CEO’s, or economists?

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This entry was posted on August 4, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Three Episodes of the Sahm Rule Triggered

Recent vs. 2008 and 2001 recessions.

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This entry was posted on August 3, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

An Eventful Week – Interest Rates

10 year Treasury yields are down 40 bps over the week.

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This entry was posted on August 2, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Business Cycle Indicators, with Employment, Monthly GDP

Here’s a picture of some key indicators followed by the NBER BCDC, along with monthly GDP:

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This entry was posted on August 2, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Employment: Different Measures

NFP comes under, 114K vs. 176K consensus. Private NFP also missed, +97K vs. +148K consensus.

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This entry was posted on August 2, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Trump Prediction Market Meltdown: COB 1 August 2024

From PredictIt on the Presidential Election Winner, 54 Dem / 48 Rep:

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This entry was posted on August 1, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

“Yellen Rebuffs Trump Argument on Dollar Hurting US Manufacturing”

That’s a title of an article by Christopher Condon, in Bloomberg a few days ago. What’s the evidence? Figure 1 shows the typically referenced CPI deflated trade weighted dollar.

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This entry was posted on August 1, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Updating the “Flip”

Yesterday, I asked if odds were flipping. As of midnight on PredictIt:

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This entry was posted on August 1, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

GDP Per Capita

Are you better off than you were 4 years ago?

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This entry was posted on July 31, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Flip? Prediction Markets at July’s End

For party of winner, 50-50 as of noon ET today (PredictIt):

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This entry was posted on July 31, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Recent Posts

  • June FT-Booth Macro Survey: GDP level same as March Survey
  • Policy Uncertainty Spikes
  • Nowcasts and Tracking of “Core GDP”
  • Gold: The Challenger to Dollar Reserves?
  • CEA Unleashed!

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Current Indicators

Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 6.8 (describes  2024:Q4)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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